Quantum is Five Years Away with John Willis

John Willis began by introducing his current work on his 14th book, which delves into the history of quantum computing. He recounts how his previous book, “Rebels of Reason,” a 100-year history of AI, and his experience with “the DevOps handbook” led him to explore quantum. He humorously frames the common adage that “quantum is always five years away,” acknowledging the cynicism within the field. His aim in writing is to make complex topics accessible to both high-IQ general readers and subject matter experts, a challenge he felt confident tackling for quantum computing after initial research.

Willis highlights the concept of a “ChatGPT moment” for quantum technology, drawing parallels to how the transistor led to the television, or early neural networks eventually led to accessible AI like ChatGPT. He believes quantum computing awaits a similar breakthrough, possibly in optimization. He emphasizes the immense difficulty of writing quantum circuits, describing it as “terrible” and “soul grinding,” even for simple programs. To address this, neural networks are being developed to automate the creation of quantum algorithms. A critical hurdle discussed is error correction, requiring a significant number of physical qubits to manage noise and maintain stability for a single logical qubit, pointing towards a future of hybrid computing with CPUs, GPUs, and QPUs.

Despite skepticism and the current state where most impressive quantum feats are simulations, Willis points to substantial investment from major companies and countries like China, indicating a strong belief in quantum’s future. He outlines potential applications in optimization for areas like new materials, advanced batteries, and complex logistical problems, as well as in highly sensitive sensing technologies like brain imaging. His key advice to CIOs is to strategically invest in hiring quantum talent now, much like the scramble for AI talent after 2017, to be prepared for the inevitable “quantum advantage” moment and capitalize on future business opportunities and patent acquisition.